Back in 2018, it took just eight words to electrify the party's annual gathering and to show Labour was becoming disillusioned with Jeremy Corbyn. Although not exactly stirring rhetoric, the words were greeted with rapturous applause as delegates rose in an impromptu ovation.
When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, remained at the lectern, visibly startled. He wasn't really accustomed to his addresses having such an effect. His statement was simply: "We are not excluding remain as an option". But context is everything.
During that deeply polarized period of 2018, departing from his agreed text in this way was inevitably viewed as laying down the gauntlet to Jeremy Corbyn, who sought to prioritize Brexit voters in key constituencies above the pro-European instincts within Labour. With that single address, this grey-suited opposition Brexit spokesman underwent a transformation – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who would stand up for the party's base against a leader he later succeeded.
The Evolution of Stance & Closed Debates
Since then, the landscape has shifted, not least to Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was to declare the EU question had been settled by the 2019 national vote. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge commitments that ruled out re-entry into the EU, the single market or a customs union.
Like his predecessor, his strategy has focused on winning pro-Leave voters in target constituencies, despite polling evidence indicates many of them have died or changed their minds.
A Lid That Rattles on Europe
Yet, it’s now Starmer is now to be an embattled Labour leader. And, if EU relations is no longer the boiling pot in UK politics, the cap which was tightly sealed for five years is beginning to rattle once more.
Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have ramped up their language about the devastation that leaving the EU has inflicted on the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who now rarely mentions his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and is still his sole political accomplishment.
And yet, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has resulted in an economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, towers over the minor adjustments so far offered by ministers. The PM's much-touted relationship reset negotiated with the EU last summer offers economic benefits measured in fractions of a percent.
Cabinet Divergence and Bolder Ideas
The chancellor is one of those attempting to bypass entrenched Home Office resistance to a broader scheme designed to boost growth youth mobility scheme by which young people can move between the UK and the EU for work or study.
David Lammy has pondered publicly regarding the clear advantages of being in an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, including the chair of the powerful finance committee, recently supported a Liberal Democrat motion on customs union membership.
Although the Europe minister, who oversees UK-EU relations, now present at all cabinet sessions, insists the red lines are still in place, there exist avenues to work around them. One idea would be to announce the start of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, for inclusion in the following election platform, to be enacted only after securing a fresh mandate.
The Prime Minister's Deep-Seated Doubts
However, Starmer has most recently pouring cold water again cautioning that rejoining a European customs area would “unravel” the trade pacts with America, which he regards as signature achievements of his premiership.
It is understood that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, stemming from several key concerns.
- Firstly, he thinks a customs pact is now much harder because his ministers actively diverging from EU regulations in numerous policy areas, including the environment.
- Secondly, the prohibitive cost demanded from Britain to join a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse of negotiations has convinced UK negotiators that European nations are less interested in cutting special deals with Britain than in proving that leaving the EU was a mistake.
- Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is viewed by key advisors in Number 10 as grounds for Britain to maintain distance from the EU.
An Alarming Strategy & Strategic Considerations
This strange and concerning document asserts Europe is threatened by cultural extinction due to immigration. It contains only one reference to Britain, placed beside a proposal that the US government will intervene in British politics to encourage the rise of nationalist movements.
However, instead of concluding that this renders America an unreliable partner, the government reportedly fear that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by risking precarious American backing for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.
Succession Chatter & The Ghost of 2018
All of which brings us back to 2018. The PM has consistently stated that address was not an attempt for the leadership but merely an effort to preserve the “option” of remain in a future vote. In fact, back then, he still supported a tailored trade agreement similar to the one he currently seems to reject.
Observers within Downing Street note that Wes Streeting, widely considered would stand for the leadership, is part of a clutch of senior ministers signaling they desire greater ambition on Europe.
Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another probable runner in a contest for the top job, maintain she won’t discuss her position on a customs union because it would only “escalate unhelpful speculation”.
The Clear Risk & A Prudent Reminder
The danger is obvious. If Starmer rules out significant moves towards EU alignment, he cedes ground to occupy the space where most of the party's supporters are to be found.
It would be wise for Starmer to recall the effect just a few words had for him in 2018. There are options for a big offer on Europe that the prime minister should not “rule out”; he should explore them himself, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.
