A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
